Markets are up this morning with the Dow hitting yet another intraday record (before scaling back a bit) and the S&P within shouting distance of a similar achievement.

This, of course, got me curious … as I recall market warnings going into the year and just came across the January statement made in Barron’s of: “with a few exceptions, the members of the 2024 Barron’s Roundtable expect the stock market to disappoint with the index delivering returns of minus ~5% to plus ~5% …” The year is not over yet, but the expert projections certainly appears as if they were … um … a bit off.

Keep in mind that inflation views were quite a bit nastier at the start of the year, but few seemed to think that inflation could possibly be tamer while consumer demand remained strong.

But this might result in you wondering how inflation could be coming down in this scenario.

Deutsche Bank feels the reason is not demand … but supply … as prices going into the cost of the product are falling into place.

Even with this, companies are a bit anxious as we head toward November as Deloitte claims CEOs are taking a cautious approach heading into the election, as each candidate has made proposals which could affect so many industries.

In a bit of positive news … at least, I think it is positive news … Congress has put off “shutting down” … for the time being … as the constant budget fight was moved to late December, just in time to ruin Christmas.

But there is a fairly important item Congress will be dealing with over the next few days as Barron’s reports a session is to start on Tuesday where the head of a major pharmaceutical firm will be questioned about the price of a very popular weight loss drug (GLP-1).  What is the big deal?  The list price of their top weight loss drug is over $1,300/month … which is around 10 times higher than the cost in Germany or the UK.

This is a pretty high cost, and some insurers are refusing to support the price … except for the most extreme cases of obesity.

Meanwhile, while on this specific topic, I made some brownies this weekend … which I had a hard time with … in the past … trying to keep them fresh.

I experimented and came upon the discovery of a very easy solution.

I just eat them all in one sitting.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

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