Here we go … Fed Day is finally here! There is so much anticipation built into today’s announcement that this once-boring event has taken on an outsized amount of nervous attention.  Get the popcorn ready!

Investors don’t seem to know how to play this … as markets opened little changed.  Of course, things should heat up later today though I wonder … if almost half predict a 25 bp cut (0.25%) and almost half want to see something much higher … will a slew of investors be disappointed no matter what the Fed decides?

Amid all this, there is a bit of good news … as fortunately the Fed is not being forced to cut rates to keep the economy from falling apart. News on retail sales was not wild enough to cause inflation concerns … and appeared to give the Fed room to adjust a little, but not too much.  But what the data showed is that there is continuing strong preference for consumers to favor online purchases … which might explain why the number of Amazon trucks on local roadways seem to be overwhelming at times. There is something quite wonderful about this, as I ordered something at 4 PM yesterday and it was on my doorstep less than 3 hours later.  If this improves just a bit, it will be faster than if I jumped in the car to run out to the mall to buy things myself.

Meanwhile, one topic that has been quieting down of late is talk of recession … and for good reason. Has the Fed achieved the hoped-for “soft landing?” GDP forecasts seem to be pointing in this direction … and while Atlanta GDPNow forecasts 3% GDP growth for the third quarter, Daily Shot claims that “betting markets” project the growth to come in at 2.6%.

I must say that I find the term “betting market” to be funny … as I have proof this is often wrong. After all, Daily Shot also used the term when discussing PolyMarket odds for this year’s Super Bowl champion … where the claim is the NY Jets have a 5% chance to win it all. Of course, this shows how wrong these experts can be … for we all know it is much higher than that.

One other note of interest I came across this morning had to do with energy and the quick and growing acceptance of electricity to run and power so many things.  According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, electricity share of total energy consumption will go from 20.1% shown in 2022 to at least 29.8% by 2050 … which is quite a jump considering how much more energy will be needed over the next few decades.

That wraps it up for today as I am taking a short trip into Delaware late this morning.

This reminds me that driving locally has become interesting and quite challenging, though one thing I don’t see too often anymore are bumper stickers … so when I do, they seem to stand out.

One I saw yesterday said, “I am a vet so therefore I can drive like an animal.”

It suddenly dawned on me how many proctologists must be on the road.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

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