Not only have temperatures dropped a bit, but the jobs market has also cooled … as Reuters reports private payroll hirings have slowed to their lowest level in around 3 ½ years.  Investors are so far reacting with only a bit of mild concern, as everyone seems to be treading water until the Fed meeting takes place and people have a better idea of the view this mighty group will be expressing.

Meanwhile, there is yet another employment report due out tomorrow which could solidify these views … which has seen a slight change in recent days.  Interestingly, not only has the probability of a 50 basis point (0.50%) cut increased to 50%, but Daily Shot is reporting that some are even suggesting we will see 50-basis point cuts in each of the final three Fed meetings this year.

Is that so crazy?  I’m not so sure.  Keep in mind the Fed did a series of 75-point increases over the last few years … so 50 no longer seems that large.

Meanwhile … it was said that the inverted yield curve always foretold recession with near-perfect accuracy.  Fuggedaboutit … as it has now reverted to where the 10-year yield is higher than the 2-year which may cause some to dilute its importance as the recession did not arrive as scheduled.

Forecasters are a funny lot … especially in finance … for, as I point out many times, just having an important title … or good marketing … so often seems to result in journalists to start stories off with “… according to one expert …” regardless of how often you’ve been wrong in the past. I remember when I made a career move and a corresponding newspaper report told of the change made by the “guru” … which, due to my age, forced me to look at the word “guru” and think of lava lamps and incense with a sitar by my side.

What got me on this subject are growing news stories on hurricanes as this year was said to be quite explosive due to la nina (or pinta, or Santa Maria … or whatever reason they gave).  So far it has been mild … resulting in these weather gurus to be quiet of late.

Okay, that’s it for me.  Back to looking at social media which has its own problems with looking ahead.

I received a Facebook message from a friend – known for posting conspiracy stories – asking me if I had plans for the fall.

It took me a few moments to realize he meant “autumn” … and not the entire collapse of civilization ,,, which I am sure will be expressed in his next posting.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

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