Rushing to an event this morning so writing will be a little choppy on a morning where future are little changed.

Please excuse any tipos.

Kicking off the final trading week of August, it seems … well, I almost hate to say it … things have taken on a more positive tone as far as the economy is concerned. But, of course, whether or not that transfers over to the stock market remains to be seen.  More on that in a minute.

Jerome Powell helped set the tone late last week with his comments saying “the time has come for policy to adjust” … giving strong indication that rates would reduce in the FOMC meeting(s) ahead.  Along with this simple phrase, other comments excited economists … as market consensus (according to Bloomberg Finance) is now looking at cuts in 2024 alone exceeding 1%.

Meanwhile, on top of this, GDP Growth Consensus Forecast is at its highest in over 2 years.

There is one thing about autumn that investors will not like to see, however … an occurrence that happens ever late August … as we are about to read article-after-article pointing out that September has historically been a quite challenging month for investors.

Do they have a point?  Over the last few years, yes, as September has been the worst month of the year in 2023, 2022 and even 2021. Admittedly, I was a little shocked when I saw that. On top of this, according to Yardini Research, the average September return from 1928 through 2023 (aka. a long freaking time) has been -1.17%.  We can only hope the anticipated move by the Fed will help reverse this.

I read a report this morning on longevity that I will include tomorrow which points out something we all know. Diet and exercise increase life expectancy.   I read over the weekend over 30% of Americans have a BMI listed in the “obese” range (over 30 BMI).  What brought this to mind is a report from “Our World in Data” showing longevity in the U.S. is far lower than other “rich nations” … which is a little surprising consider our supposed access to top-notch health care. Just pointing this out … as I prepare to rush out to a breakfast.

Speaking of breakfast, I included an article on something I love … bagels (noting I’m from New York … which has the best of the best … along with pizza and sports teams) … and the interesting way that many in St. Louis are treating this delicacy.

One of the common issues with bagels is the way they are prepared.  I was taught to get your bagel, slice horizontally down the middle … toast … and splatter cream cheese on top (among other additions).  Delicious.  Well, it seems that in St. Louis some realized this method flattens out the cream cheese … so much that it often droops out of the sides like toothpaste.  The solution?  Cut the bagel like you would bread … vertical, rather than horizontal.  The result is lots more surface area and offering many additional ways to prepare … which is perfect for those with small hands.

I think this method will catch on and I can’t wait to try it.

I am sure I will enjoy the hole thing.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com