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Good morning.

You know … watching the market … seeing gains suddenly disappear … and listening to pundits constantly claiming doom … I find that I am talking to myself more and more in recent days.  And even though my well-intended message is “you have lots of experience … you’ve been through this before …” and “this too shall pass …” doesn’t make it any less painful.

Even yesterday’s “in line with expectations” 75 basis-point (0.75%) increase in rates provided comfort for only a short while … as investors focused on the feeling that the worst is yet to come as FOMC projections of “implied Fed futures target rates” were above what is considered market projections for the next two years.

What this all told us … in layman’s terms as Daily Shot put it … is the FOMC is projecting slower growth, higher unemployment and higher inflation in the time ahead … but, of course, as always is the big question is how much of this is already priced into the market?  And this, regardless of expert claims … no one knows … though that doesn’t slow the many opinions.

One of the concerns … going into the winter … especially with energy price increases and uncertainly over jobs … is how spending might change.  When markets are up sharply, even if “on paper” … investors feel good and don’t fret too much about spending … including hiring someone for projects around the house or ordering that extra appetizer if eating out.  We might find plans for that new kitchen or bathroom are temporarily shelved … and dining out might (for some) no longer be an almost-daily occurrence.

Now, I did mention energy … so now I will go there … and the news is certainly dour.

According to WMUR, 40% of homes in New Hampshire depend on oil for heat (as when I lived there, I remember the enormous oil tank in my basement).  Prices for this important fuel are up around 56% from last year at this time … and expected to go much higher in the coming months.  For many families this increase alone might be financially crippling.  On top of that, electricity is also expecting a sharp rise (possibly up over 60% in neighboring Massachusetts, according to an ABC News affiliate).  Residents in New England are almost certainly praying for a warm winter.

That will about wrap it up for today as the more I write, the more I depress myself.

Well, at least the Mets are looking real good.

The only thing that might spoil my buoyant mood on that right now is if I find out they will name Jerome Powell as their next manager.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA
Vice President
Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC
610 Freedom Business Center Drive
King of Prussia, PA 19406
Direct: (610) 285-9905
cell: (856) 625-7915

A Look At The News September 22, 2022

As of 11:52 AM today

It looks as if that rush to buy a home has reversed … as sales of existing homes have dropped substantially from the year-ago period (CNN)

… but even if home prices decline, affordability could be an issue on the heels of a mortgage rate rise and a bit of a downturn in people’s financial well-being (NerdWallet)

Quite a few communities are preparing for a possible rise in sea levels … but what if they are right about the rise … but woefully short regarding the level of increase? (TimesofIsrael)

Looking at the future of heating, it seems that everyone is talking about going electric. Of course, the source of this electricity has to be properly considered. (EarthIsland)

Energy is rarely talked about for more than a few minutes when winter is on the doorstep. But travelers to Europe might want to take energy into consideration when making plans (Fodors)

… for the situation overseas is quite problematic … and might worsen … due to Russia’s cut off of the natural gas supply (CNBC)

Do you want to keep onto your youthful aura for quite a bit longer?  There is one trait that can certainly help with this.  Compassion (CNBC)


The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us.