Boy, I’m old. I remember the days when a few-hundred point move in the Dow meant something but today it seems like these moves happen with such frequent occurrence (much like NY Jet losses) that they are often ignored. I think the reason this caught my eye is the realization that we had three 500-point moves in the Dow in the last 10 days … and two of those were declines, with each one being larger that the famed drop in October 1987 … often referred to as “Black Monday.”
I had some industry-related stuff that kept me from writing earlier this week but when I compared this morning’s notes to ones I have from last week … it appears concerns are the same … continuing virus cases and inflation. Regarding the virus, there remains quite a difference of opinion. While some still have not received (and do not plan to receive) their first shot, others are already getting their “booster.” By the way, I got my third shot on Monday … and found myself exhausted all day yesterday. I blame the booster … but staying up until 1 AM to binge-watch a Netflix show the night before certainly didn’t help.
As far as vaccines go, a growing number of companies are trying to force the issue and Forbes is reporting that 75% of small businesses will actually fire workers who will not vaccinate … although I believe the EEOC (U.S. Equal Opportunity Employment Commission) feels this is only justified for those physically at the worksite (and yes, there are exceptions).
Politicians are also busy in Washington over the next few days to put into place agreements to keep the government running as … for the umpteenth time … Congress is being charged with passing a funding bill to keep things going. It is a glorious time to be able to witness politicians of little note grab national attention just by giving the hint that they might vote differently than their party leaders have directed.
What all this sums up to be is a period of uncertainly for investors.
A short while ago, we witnessed third-quarter GDP forecasts that seemed to promise roaring times ahead … while the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate dropped from being above 6% in early August to 3.2% today which is, to use an economic phase, “quite a decline.”
On a final note … and one I will espouse upon in more writings to follow … Pew Research Center shows a large number (68%) of Americans feel their kids will be worse off, financially, than their parent’s generation.
As a helicopter parent, I certainly understand that … as I just bought new AirPods for my kid when he accidentally put his through the washing machine.
While he, obviously, thinks there is a money tree growing some place in the yard … he doesn’t yet see something that will be very important to him in the future.
Even though it doesn’t directly go through his fingers …
… he is spending his inheritance now.
Have a great day,
Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA
Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC
610 Freedom Business Center Drive
King of Prussia, PA 19406
Direct: (610) 285-9905
cell: (856) 625-7915
As of 11:43 AM today …
Quick Look at the News
If you are waiting for market records continuing to be set, you might be waiting a while … as large institutional investors are getting a bit more pessimistic and take a more active approach (CNBC)https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/29/big-institutional-investors-dont-see-large-stock-returns-continuing-and-are-getting-more-active.html
… although one of the concerns now has to do with the U.S. budget … a worry that comes up every year … as, according to one banker, a default would be “catastrophic” (CNBC)https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/28/jpmorgans-jamie-dimon-cautions-a-us-default-would-be-potentially-catastrophic.html
There is no use in delaying good things that happen to you … as one unfortunate person proves to us … as they won a lottery … and drowned before cashing in the ticket (KCBD)https://www.kcbd.com/2021/09/28/drowning-victim-found-with-winning-lottery-ticket-his-wallet/
Is the “plant” craze more than a passing fad? It might be, as studies are showing these diets are very good for your health after all (WellandGood)https://www.wellandgood.com/plant-based-diet-heart-health/
One of the things I just rarely get right is scrambled eggs … so I am intrigued to try the James Bond recipe … which is listed here (though it seems like a lot of butter). Eggs beaten ... not stirred. (ArtofManliness)https://www.artofmanliness.com/living/food-drink/how-to-make-james-bond-scrambled-eggs/
Finally, we’ve found it … the key to happiness … and, no, it is not money. It seems like exercise is the way to happiness … a road few of us willingly travel upon (Fatherly)https://www.fatherly.com/news/new-study-says-key-to-happiness-is-obvious/
The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us.