Well, we made it to September with no stock market damage so far this year … as the year-to-date return for the S&P 500 (thru August) is almost double what we have seen, historically, even on an annual basis. That is not keeping the worrywarts at bay, by any means … especially as they point out something of which I was not aware.
I mean … I know September has had a “bad rap” regarding stock market returns but LPL Research (using FactSet data) looked at results since 1950 (quite a long time) and noted the annual return in September has been negative for the last 10 years, 20 years, from 1950 to present, and in post-election years.
This is not helped by confidence measures at all … as Consumer Sentiment weakened in August, according to Census Board … and University of Michigan data showed an even bigger decline in Consumer Confidence. By the way, I even looked at a third source … the Gallup Economic Confidence Index … and it painted the same unpleasant picture.
Of course, the virus has many thinking things might not seem as robust as forecasted earlier this year.
The CDC just advised those still unvaccinated to stay home during the upcoming holiday weekend. Yeah, right. In addition, in an interesting Bloomberg article a majority of surveyed CEOs are planning to cut back business travel … even after COVID is in the rear-view mirror … if it ever is (for that’s the way it seems lately).
People do seem to be a bit concerned, but certainly know how to prepare … so just to warn you if you are short, there seems to be another “run” on toilet paper and other items … as people are taking a just-in-case approach. Fortunately, I am not in this camp as I think I still have rolls from March 2020.
That about wraps it up for today.
I will be busy with my kid this afternoon, talking about colleges and helping him decide just want he wants to do in life.
It is kind of difficult to admit to him that, as his age, I didn’t know what I wanted to do either.
I wanted to be a monk, but I just never got the chants.
Have a great day,
Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA
Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC
610 Freedom Business Center Drive
King of Prussia, PA 19406
Direct: (610) 285-9905
cell: (856) 625-7915
As of 11:56 AM today …
Quick Look at the News
While it was expected that many would come back to the workplace as summer started to sing its finale … it hasn’t happened yet and estimates were … well … off by quite a bit (CNBC)https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/01/private-payrolls-increase-by-just-374000-in-august-far-short-of-the-600000-estimate-adp-says.html
… and the loss of payroll tax revenue had a big effect on social security … and the timeframe before it runs out of money was shortened a bit (NPR)https://www.npr.org/2021/09/01/1033151631/a-new-report-says-the-covid-recession-has-pushed-social-security-insolvency-up-a
Have you been saving travel points (airlines/hotel) for a major trip somewhere down the road? These plans can be diluted or cancelled … so you might want to use some points now (CNBC)https://www.cnbc.com/select/why-you-should-use-points-miles-instead-of-saving-them/
… but if you are not vaccinated and follow the request of the CDC you won’t be going anywhere this holiday weekend, as you are advised to stay home. Yeah, right. (DNYUZ)https://dnyuz.com/2021/09/01/cdc-asks-unvaccinated-americans-nearly-80-million-of-them-to-stay-home-for-labor-day-weekend/
Do you want to get more respect at work? Think before you act … and be careful how you treat fellow employees (ArtofManliness)https://www.artofmanliness.com/articles/how-to-get-the-respect-you-deserve-at-work/
Broadway has raised the curtain for many of its shows … but will masked patrons be entirely comfortable? (NPR)https://www.npr.org/2021/09/01/1033011323/broadway-musicals-reopen-covid-delta
… and there is not only a bit of concern remaining with dining out and going to the theatre … as people are stocking up on certain items (again) … just in case (USAToday)https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/shopping/2021/08/31/toilet-paper-demand-shoppers-again-stocking-up-covid-cases-rise/5672329001/