Was the jobs report on Friday, good news or bad news? It depends on whom you ask. The June jobs report announced last week was quite positive indeed, and was above analyst expectations. So what is the downside? Many were expecting the Fed to cut rates later this month by as much as a half percentage point … but that was to boost an economy which some are starting to think just might not need too much boosting at all.
But the big question is how much of a helping hand the economy might need … if any at all … and the administration and the Fed seem to be very much at odds.
According to Bloomberg, the administration made comments over the weekend that the Fed would cut rates “if it knew what it was doing” and on Friday made the claim (via a tweet) that “our most difficult problem is not our competitors, it is the Federal Reserve.”
It appears the battle between the administration and the Fed, which started a few months ago, has actually begun to intensify.
I was with a group of some pretty learned friends over the weekend … and we bored everyone within earshot … which we often do … as our conversation led to a discussion of U.S. monetary policy … and one COO of a very large Canadian firm interjected that America is just a few years away from becoming like Europe … or Japan … with negative rates to occur somewhere down the road.
He is wrong, of course.
We couldn’t ever be in the same situation … although I only had one thing I could do when he asked my opinion of what would happen when we ran out of gunpowder.
I sat back … thought for a minute … and was wise enough to order another beer.
Have a great day,
Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA
Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC
610 Freedom Business Center Drive
King of Prussia, PA 19406
Direct: (610) 285-9905
… as of 6:00 AM today …
Quick Look at the News
The middle of last week found a slew of forecasters announcing a 50 basis point (half percent) rate cut could soon be announced. Voices got a bit quieter following Friday's good jobs number (MarketWatch)https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-hallucinatory-to-expect-a-half-point-fed-rate-cut-now-but-economists-still-expect-a-quarter-point-reduction-2019-07-05
Are you a millionaire? According to one study ... if you are not it will be quite difficult to retire comfortably ... and many see $1.7 million as "the magic number" needed (CNBC)https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/05/how-much-money-do-you-need-to-retire.html
... but how to one-quarter of Americans plan to retire? They don't. It is easy to ignore, living on the hope that the day will never come (WashingtonTimes)https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/jul/7/1-4-americans-have-no-plans-retire/
... but one thing people might want to do is save money ... or at least not to overspend ... and days such as Amazon Prime Day ... when things are offered at a discount could help (Amazon)https://www.amazon.com/Prime-Day/b?ie=UTF8&node=13887280011
In this week's marketing plan (there seems to be a new one every week) Tesla would like to ship cars direct to your home (Fortune)https://fortune.com/2019/07/06/teslas-elon-musk-focuses-on-direct-to-driveway-deliveries/
... but something else that could be soon to arrive are steaks ... no, not real beef ones ... but lab-grown steaks. Yum! (DailyMail)https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-7218283/Lab-grown-STEAKS-soon-menu-thanks-breakthroughs-cultured-meats-experts-say.html