Jobless claims hit a new pandemic low, New York manufacturing is at record high and corporate earnings are topping expectations. The marker reaction this morning? A decline. Huh?
Of course, it is only one day and a pullback from recent records are to be expected but what is interesting is economist Robert Shiller looking at 141 years of data and concluding the S&P 500 has only been this expensive 4% of the time. Should we worry? Probably not … as he has been wrong before … and a BofA Global fund manager survey shows only 3% of investors expect a bear market over the next 6 month timeframe.
And who can blame investors for this lackadaisical attitude? Jobs appear plentiful and the result this morning showed 360,000 new filings last week … in line with expectations.
One group that seems to have a bit of concern, though, are renters. Not only are prices jumping … with many lower-wage earners increasingly unable to afford places they desire … but an increasing number are facing eviction in the months ahead (as detailed in an article below).
Some new inflation numbers came out and one area that drove up the number is automobile prices. Demand does appear strong here as HIS Market provides information claiming the average age of cars on the road today is around 12.1 years.
There is one manager … Cathie Wood … known for considering technological innovation … who freely gives the view that not only is inflation a non-worry, but we should have a bit of deflation (where prices drop) in the near future due to such innovation.
On a final note for today (I know … I know … I’m all over the place) … The Economist reported the most important issue facing the U.S. today, according to survey respondents, is not jobs and the economy … nor is it climate … and it is not immigration. The most important issue (obviously on the minds of many) is healthcare.
And for good reason.
Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics reported on how fast the world is aging and it appears the share of those over the age of 50 will jump quite a bit over the next 10-20 years. While the increase appears to be quite high in India and China, this demographic is also increasing in the U.S. No wonder health care is of such tremendous concern!
On a final note, I bought one of those golf swing trainers … it arrives today and I can’t wait to get started. I’ve mentioned many times that a goal is break 100 and … I am close … real close … but just can’t get there and need help desperately.
I thought it was my vision … so had that tested … and shockingly found out I am colorblind.
That news came completely out of the green.
Have a great day,
Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA
Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC
610 Freedom Business Center Drive
King of Prussia, PA 19406
Direct: (610) 285-9905
cell: (856) 625-7915
… As of 10:28 AM today …
Quick Look at the News
Are you worried about prices moving up so fast? Cathie Wood advises us to relax as technological innovation will soon come to the rescue (Reuters)https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/ark-invests-cathie-wood-looks-past-rising-consumer-prices-focus-deflation-2021-07-13/
… but one area where prices have jumped lately is rent … and most on a minimum wage are having a hard time making payments (NPR)https://www.npr.org/2021/07/14/1016230724/rents-are-out-of-reach-for-most-americans-earning-minimum-wage-a-study-says
… in fact, a slew of survey respondents feel they could be evicted soon … which leads to another problem entirely … for where do they go? (Acorns)https://grow.acorns.com/survey-half-of-renters-feel-they-could-be-evicted-soon/
With so much focus on the virus last year drug overdoses fell out of the headlines … yet a record number of Americans died from drug overdoses … and the yearly increase was substantial (NPR)https://www.npr.org/2021/07/14/1016029270/drug-overdoses-killed-a-record-number-of-americans-in-2020-jumping-by-nearly-30
It is now reported that one-third of crypto investors have no idea what they are doing. I am certainly in that group when it comes to so many things (Independent)https://www.independent.co.uk/money/bitcoin-ethereum-cryptocurrency-price-drop-invest-china-b1883069.html
Are you giving a deadline for a project? Good luck with that … as studies show many are overly optimistic when it comes to figuring how long to accomplish a task (DNYUZ)https://dnyuz.com/2021/07/15/our-brains-make-us-way-too-optimistic-about-meeting-deadlines-heres-how-to-work-around-that/
Would you like to see what is on your iPhone on a bigger screen? With a new TV you might be able to … with a simple swipe of the device (LifeWire)https://www.lifewire.com/mirror-iphone-to-tv-without-apple-tv-5191227