We were met with a slightly positive market opening as the President announced (for the umpteenth time it seems) that a trade agreement with China will come at any time. True? Not true? I don’t know … but investors apparently don’t want be caught underinvested if an agreement is reached … giving the opinion, of some, that the trade uncertainly is keeping the market in check.
It might be important to note that note everyone is believer.
In an interesting CNBC article (included below), on hedge fund is placing a $1 billion bet that stocks will drop over the next few months. While this headline is a bit shocking … it is important to keep in mind that the fund has over $150 billion to invest … which is akin to someone with $1 million risking $6,666 … following the same logic.
You might note I have not been publishing every day lately. I am doing projects at work that take up quite a bit of time … and I realize that being a “morning person” gives these priority some days … especially when I get focused on a spreadsheet. My boss says I just shouldn’t have expanded my lunch hour from 11 to 2. Silly suggestion, don’t you think?
Meanwhile, one thing I learned in grad school is that when you give presentation you must not only rehearse … but make sure your “props” are working. Elon Musk gave a presentation on the new Tesla truck last night (you know … the one with a design that looks more like a Toblerone candy than a pickup) and when they went to show the strength of the unbreakable window in front of a live audience … it … well … broke.
I am sure he will fix them and the specs seems fantastic. In fact, I will put down the $100 down payment just to get in line. But competition is not sitting by idly (kind of a car pun) and you can be sure others will shortly be introduced. And in case my compliance department reads this, I must point out that I own Tesla stock.
On a final note a few recent bankruptcies are in the news. Bumble Bee Tuna filed for bankruptcy (sorry, Charlie) and Dean Foods recently did so. Dean is the largest dairy in the U.S. (last story below) and it seems people are just not drinking as much cow’s milk as they’ve done in the past.
Of course, I’ve told this story before, but milk does have its limits. In fact, I have an uncle who died from drinking too much milk.
The cow fell on him.
Have a great day,
Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA
Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC
610 Freedom Business Center Drive
King of Prussia, PA 19406
Direct: (610) 285-9905
… as of 9:47 AM today …
Quick Look at the News
Close ... not close ... who knows? For the umpteenth time we hear this morning that a trade deal with China is expected to come shortly (CNBC)https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/22/trump-says-trade-deal-with-china-is-very-close.html
... and we certainly hope a friendly agreement is reached ... as one person with a bit of knowledge about world affairs feels this ongoing rift could hurt us (CNBC)https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/22/us-china-economic-conflict-could-be-worse-than-wwi-henry-kissinger-says.html
While the market seems to like any news on an agreement with China (event if it doesn't happen), one manager feels stocks are about to sell off ... and betting on it (CNBC)https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/22/bridgewater-associates-bets-over-1-billion-on-wintertime-sell-off.html
... but stocks might not be the only thing in trouble. One market commenter (I won't call him a strategist as he is wrong so often) thinks Bitcoin is cooked (NewsBTC)https://www.newsbtc.com/2019/11/21/bitcoin-readying-to-drop-85-to-1000-schiff-says/
Is college for everyone? There are pros and cons associated with giving up 4 years of your life (and, for some, a bit more than that) (ArtofManliness)https://www.artofmanliness.com/articles/is-college-for-everyone-part-ii-the-pros-and-cons-of-attending-a-4-year-college/
... but I will point out one thing that school taught me ... test things (many times) before going "live." The Tesla truck window breaking last night shouldn't have happened (CNBC)https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/22/tesla-smashes-bulletproof-pickup-trucks-windows-with-a-metal-ball.html
... and what are people not drinking much of anymore? Milk from cows ... and that is hurting (greatly) many in the industry (CNN)https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/21/business/milk-industry-dean-foods/index.html