Stocks are in slight, negative, territory at the moment … but that is nothing compared to the decline that might be seen if Vanguard’s chief economist is correct (as pointed out in the first note below) as he provides a near-term market assessment as “guarded.”
And what does he base this on? Well, according to the article the U.S./China trade tensions might continue to fester for quite some time.
But there is something else slowly going on around us … and that is … well … the lack of newborns. The “fertility rate” has declined to such a degree that we are not able to replenish our population. Let’s think of this another way … over our history, couples got married … homes were purchased … families were started … diapers were purchased … and elderly members of the family passed away. But things have changed. Marriages are delayed, families are smaller in number … and elders are living longer. The old “formulas” changed … and every year the median population age is rising. In my opinion we can, and should, be incentivizing earlier and larger family growth … but I have yet to read about this being seen as a problem amid all the other “noise” I read in the press. It will not be mentioned in tonight’s debate as a concern. Not to change topics, but I just hope the national debt is mentioned. Two important metric, where one is decreasing and the other is increasing. And both are being cast aside as if they are not important.
Okay, I am hopping off my soapbox for now.
You probably noticed all the notices of “get your flu shot” and “free flu shot” everywhere from your pharmacy to your local supermarket (as nothing is more attractive than thinking of someone getting a flu shot just a short distance away from where they sell lettuce). These are not public service announcements … someone is making a heck of a profit … and when your insurance company is billed you do end up paying … although no one tells you that at the time.
It’s enough to make you sick.
Meanwhile, there is a job posting (last story below) where you can sit at home, try different cannabis products … get paid and become known as a “cannabis reviewer.”
The problem is the job doesn’t actually pay enough.
I’d be afraid the entire salary would be spent on Doritos.
Have a great day,
Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA
Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC
610 Freedom Business Center Drive
King of Prussia, PA 19406
Direct: (610) 285-9905
… as of 10:48 AM today …
Quick Look at the News
While there is always risk in owning equities ... one economist claims the risk of a sharp decline has been elevated (MarketWatch)https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-vanguards-chief-economist-says-there-is-an-elevated-risk-of-a-large-drawdown-in-stocks-2019-11-19
... and while quite a few investors are concerned about the trade war we find ourselves in, a sluggish Chinese economy could force that country's leaders to make an agreement (CNBC)https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/20/china-slowdown-vs-us-strength-may-cause-china-to-fold-in-trade-war-nomura.html
... but are there concerns other than China? Of course there are ... as climate change could have quite an effect on the world's economy (CNBC)https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/19/climate-change-could-shave-off-3percent-of-the-world-economy-study-finds.html
Yes, I've mentioned it before ... but our demographic change is something we should be concerned about ... as we are not having enough babies for our population to grow (CBS)https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2019/01/12/cdc-americans-not-enough-babies/
In recent weeks we have been inundated with offers to give us free or low-cost flu shots. We actually do pay in the end (Arstechica)https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/11/bonkers-pricing-of-free-flu-shots-shows-whats-wrong-with-us-healthcare/
Did you ever stay at a high-end hotel and see empty pool chairs? One entrepreneur found a way to fill them, and the hotels are quite happy for the help (Forbes)https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogersands/2019/11/19/access-hotel-amenities-without-an-overnight-stay/#6c9016ec7d83
Products need reviewers ... just to make sure the product is up to snuff. Now there is a call for a cannabis tester ... but you do need to have a little experience to apply (ABC)https://abcnews.go.com/US/cannabis-reviewer-earn-36k-smoke-weed-review-products/story?id=67132283