A short, sweet note this morning.
Well, the Fed watch has moved to the sidelines for now and … according to Bloomberg … only a relatively small number of analysts think another move is possible before the end of this year. So thoughts move on to China and he continuing trade war and, while we are seeing some minor developments, nothing is concrete.
Yes, concerns do exist … as the U.S. and China would love to resolve this things and move on … but there are some sticking points (third and fourth notes below) and China is publicly commenting that it does not see a long-term solution at this time. But at least both sides are talking!
We had a jobless number out this morning which was so close to the estimate that its showing more applications for jobless claims than was expected is not a concern at all. Meanwhile, Daily Shot reports that mortgage applications “remain robust” … so, even though GDP growth (actual and forecast) is below 2%, one might assume that the economy, sluggishly, continues to move in the right direction.
That being said, there are some who don’t see thing as rosy as I might. The second article below finds one strategist claiming as much as an 18% drop in equities! But how do I see things? The S&P is up over 20% year-to-date so, hopefully, there will be some pretty confident and comfortable Christmas shoppers out there this year preparing to do what Americans do best … buy things!
And just in case you are wondering … while you start your shopping … my favorite color is blue, and size is XL.
… which is not funny, as a year ago my size was L.
… oh, those damned Twinkies!
Have a great day,
Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA
Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC
610 Freedom Business Center Drive
King of Prussia, PA 19406
Direct: (610) 285-9905
… as of 10:15 AM today …
Quick Look at the News
Weekly jobless numbers were a bit more than expected ... but certainly not enough to cause anyone to press the panic button just yet (CNBC)https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/31/us-weekly-jobless-claims-rise-to-218000-vs-215000-estimate.html
... but, even so, you have your doubters ... who grab headlines with quite scary statements about stocks entering a chapter where they will lose as much as 18% (Investopedia)https://www.investopedia.com/why-stocks-will-plunge-18-by-year-end-despite-fed-rate-cuts-4774639?utm_campaign=quote-yahoo&utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=referral&yptr=yahoo
Now that the Fed discussion is on the back burner, one bit of angst is caused by China not wanting to buy a lot of U.S. crops ... especially since it might be higher than their need (CNBC)https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/30/us-china-trade-talks-beijing-wary-about-us-pressure-to-buy-farm-goods.html
... and while the U.S. is talking about a "phase one" plan, China is quite concerned if things will advance from there (Reuters)https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-talks-idUSKBN1XA14Z
Imagine a few years down the road. Where will you be? While nursing homes are where many end up, almost half of us say we would rather die first (CNBC)https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/30/more-than-half-of-adults-over-50-would-rather-die-than-do-this.html
Many know that I am quite excited about virtual reality ... but if you think about it as just games, you are wrong ... as it is being used as a management tool in interesting ways (Fortune)https://fortune.com/2019/10/29/virtual-reality-diversity-inclusion-training/