Working in the area of finance is always interesting … as every day is different … but it humbles you … and makes you realize your ability to figure out what drives markets is probably a tremendous degree of luck … with only a very little part being talent.
Why am I saying this?
Recently, a part of the recent market move was based – according to exports – on what is suspected to be a U.S./China finalization of a phase one deal. So when news crossed my screen minutes ago that next month’s meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping was cancelled, I fully expected an immediate decline in stocks. Actual investor reaction? A big yawn … as markets have not moved at all surrounding the announcement.
I guess all eyes are focused on today’s Fed move (where odds-makers are giving a rate reduction a 95% chance of happening). But while another yawn might occur when this 2 PM announcement is made … what is expected to possible disrupt today’s slumber is Chairman Powell’s comments at the 2:30 PM press conference … where every word, every hand gesture, every cough … will be dissected for clues as to what the Fed will be doing for the rest of the year and beyond.
The Fed is probably reading what I did this morning, where many feel we are in the late stages of our economic cycle … so what did I do upon reading this? I went to Google and pulled up similar comments made by Wells Fargo in 2018, Citibank in 2016 and many others all during the expansion. I will repeat that no one knows how long this will last … nor does anyone know if we are already in recession (the group that makes this call is usually late by many months after the onset).
Meanwhile, some ask if the Fed will continue to bail us out indefinitely. In the first article below, one manager thinks so … as he looks at the Fed unable to (ever) stop its support … and leads him to proclaim that we live in a “Banana Republic.”
Sorry … fairly boring note today … speaking of yawning … but this next item should cheer you up.
Starting at 2 PM today, Taco Bell is giving away free tacos … and if you order through an app, there is no time constraint (as explained in last article below).
Yes, Taco Wednesday does not have the same ring as “Taco Tuesday” … but the result is the same.
And, yes … I’ve used this pun in the past but it surely is appropriate today:
“… we all have taco sometime.”
Have a great day,
Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA
Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC
610 Freedom Business Center Drive
King of Prussia, PA 19406
Direct: (610) 285-9905
… as of 11:24 AM today …
Quick Look at the News
The Fed continuing to cut rates is seen by some as a great thing for continued economic expansion. Others see it as a threat ... and sense troubling things ahead (MarketWatch)https://www.marketwatch.com/story/qe-on-steroids-could-lead-to-a-depression-warns-money-manager-who-compares-the-us-to-a-banana-republic-2019-10-28
... but it is not only market models that are being disruptive ... as the trend toward "no meat" can be disruptive as well ... to the cow population (FastCompany)https://www.fastcompany.com/90421659/were-very-close-to-disrupting-the-cow
Kids are a pretty anxious lot nowadays ... and adding to it are shooter drills being held in classrooms around the nation (Huffpost)https://www.huffpost.com/entry/active-shooter-drills-anxiety-students_n_5db354d5e4b006d4916e62f0
... but to relieve anxiety, some turn to video games ... although this might be a problem in itself as use has doubled among school-age kids in just a short period of time (ABCNews)https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/survey-kids-appetite-online-video-doubles-years-66601115
College athletes will soon be able to profit from their image being used in promotions and video games ... but will this lead to self-promotion frenzy? Probably (CNN)https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/29/us/ncaa-athletes-compensation/index.html
Some bad news for seacoast dwellers ... as the sea level claims recently made ... could have been woefully underestimated (ClimateCentral)https://www.climatecentral.org/news/report-flooded-future-global-vulnerability-to-sea-level-rise-worse-than-previously-understood
While "Taco Wednesday" doesn't have the same pizazz as "Taco Tuesday" ... lovers could receive quite a bit of joy later today if they take advantage of Taco Bell's promotion (Thrillist)https://www.thrillist.com/news/nation/free-taco-bell-doritos-locos-tacos-2019-steal-a-base-steal-a-taco