Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA
VP of Product Development Emerald Asset Management

Good morning.
Early in today’s session it appeared the S&P 500 would achieve a new record, but its upward climb stalled … and then reversed … yet still remains in shouting distance.

It is interesting how mood and focus changes so rapidly.

Based on online activity, according to Arbor Research, pandemic-related searches have now taken a back seat to supply-chain issues … as problems with getting goods continue. One of the reasons is a shortage of truckers as manufacturing (with fewer staff) is not the only issue … as not only do you have to make things … but you also have to get items safely to their destination. Just yesterday I read that Amazon wants to hire 50,000 people for the holidays. An article included below claims the nation is in need of 80,000 truckers. Unless something crazy happens with the economy, it does not appear that unemployment numbers will jump any time soon. We just need to find enough people willing (and able) to work.

BofA Global reports fund managers were asked about the biggest “tail risk” seen … and reported that “inflation” stands at the top of the list. What is shocking about the chart I saw in Daily Shot is just how much of a percentage the increase was between September and October, showing managers are increasingly worried.

Not only that … but a greater amount of investors feel that inflation will continue (listing “permanent” rather than “transitory”). Supply chain concerns are certainly taking a toll.

Can people afford higher prices? Maybe. The Federal Reserve is reporting that the aggregate net worth of Gen X households (41-56 year olds) jumped by 50% since the start of Covid-19. The Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that these are prime spending years so maybe this inflation won’t have too bad of an effect on many in this age group (as long as it doesn’t get out of hand). And, of course, those who did not save are in a bit of a pickle (the price of which has also risen).

That’s about if for today and I’m sorry if spending seems to be on my mind. My son wanted me to stop at the store and pick up “bottled water” because we were out. Bottled water … does he know how much this costs?

I tried to reason with him and tell him I didn’t understand how he could ask me to waste money … as I found myself telling him that years ago I was so poor that I was actually forced to get my water from the kitchen faucet.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA
Vice President
Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC
610 Freedom Business Center Drive
King of Prussia, PA 19406
Direct: (610) 285-9905
cell: (856) 625-7915

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