| Good morning:
Stocks are up this morning, gaining back some of the ground lost in Friday’s ugly market session. Still, gains are gains and many are thankful declines seen last week have reversed … even if only to a degree. The war in Iran has just crossed its 100-day mark and, sadly, the end does not appear to be in sight any time soon … as with every claim that an agreement is near there seems to be a new report of some rocket being fired. A big issue remains the price of oil … which has come down in recent weeks. But the CEO of Exxon recently issued a warning that prices can be held in check for only so long as since the start of the war, two things helped … oil inventory that was already on the water and the release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. But what happens when this supply gets exhausted? Oh my. He gave the opinion on CNBC that prices could quickly jump by as much as 50%. This, of course, could mean higher gas prices (which have been coming down since the “ceasefire”) and with Statista reporting the top worry of survey respondents being inflation along with the cost of living, anything moving gas prices higher would be of concern. Those counting on rate cuts to help might find their hopes shattered as recent job market strength appears to work against this … and Goldman Sachs just pushed their own view that the Fed may hold off on rate cuts until next year while “betting markets” are increasing the odds for an increase. I’m going to wrap this up here for today other than to include a comment on tipping – which is fresh on my mind and noted in the last article below. If you recall, I was on a mini-vacation last week and spent time with some college buddies … golfing, gabbing and eating too much food. One of the topics we hit on was “tipping” and we expressed collective disappointment that “suggested” tipping at some places is now as high as 25 and even 30%! Due to tipping fatigue, and the fact that we get cheaper as we get older, we moved towards not tipping on pickup … especially since some restaurants post higher prices for online ordering … and force you to do it through a third party where you are forced to sign up to use. What caught my eye last night while out to eat was the suggested gratuity was figured after taxes were included. Sneaky … but I’m not falling for it any longer. In addition, we even have one local restaurant (now off my dining list) that adds a 3% “margin offset fee” … “to help offset margin erosions associated with transactional costs.” I have no idea what that means exactly … but I’m not paying it as prices are high enough. Sorry to end this by talking about food … as I am about to embark on a food-related mission and it is fresh on my mind … … as I promised to help my wife look around the kitchen to find the chocolate bar that I ate. Have a great day, Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com
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