Good morning:.

I wasn’t going to put out a note this morning … as I am on vacation … but as much as I hate to admit it my mind is on the markets … and, selfishly, my investments … and comments by Mark Zandi made me more than a bit uncomfortable.

For those who probably don’t know, Mark is the chief economist of Moody’s and not known to be one to overreact or “talk his book” … and he recently told Bloomberg that if the situation with Iran is not resolved by middle of June, recession risk is increasingly likely … in large part due our depletion of the U.S. oil reserves.

But it is tough to get a handle on exactly where that stands.

In doing minimal “research” (lazily just looking at news headlines) I saw the claim in Investing.com that “oil reserves are at lowest level since 2024,” Financial Times tells us levels are lowest since 2004, and Newsweek has us at nearly a 40-year low.  I just don’t know what to believe … and I am guessing that many of us are in that same boat.

Meanwhile, stocks look to be a bit mixed this morning with tech stocks (according to Nasdaq futures) looking to open down … as a downbeat forecast from Broadcom is causing some to question if the AI trade was a bit too optimistic.

Sorry, I know I’m a bit all over the place … friends are already putting golf clubs in the car and I’m sipping coffee, typing and forcing them to wait.

I did come across one bit of info that you can use at work today if you want to really impress people at the water cooler … as Daily Shot … quoting the Wall Street Journal is reporting something amazing … claiming Elon Musk’s net worth is “ … 3% of US GDP and eclipses the annual economic output of over 125 countries.”  Wow!  And it certainly appears he is on his way to becoming the world’s first trillionaire!

I’ll mercifully end this here today as I need to toss my own clubs in the car for another day of embarrassment … treasuring every moment spent with dear friends who I don’t see often enough.

It seems friendship isn’t about who you spend the most time with

… it’s about who’s seen your golf game and are still your friend.

… and believe me, with the way I played yesterday

… there are probably three people rethinking this.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com

A Look At The News | June 4, 2026 As of 8:52 AM today … The Fed typically needs to worry about employment and inflation (according to its “mandate”), so does recent positive employment numbers make a cut all the less likely?  Probably (FoxBusiness) https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/private-sector-adds-122000-jobs-may-above-expectations-adp-says   … but higher rates also make home affordability more problematic … and sellers are taking their homes off the market at a fast pace (CNBC) https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/03/sellers-delisting-homes-redfin.html   Sure … some are using ChatGPT and other similar sites without paying … but they get the “reduced” service and will probably need to subscribe at some point (NPR) https://www.npr.org/2026/06/04/nx-s1-5791661/chatgpt-gemini-claude-subscription-revenue-openai   When an employee sees a problem, what is their next course of action?  Many don’t say a word, as it is seen … by some … that speaking up often comes with risk (Forbes) https://www.forbes.com/sites/dianehamilton/2026/06/03/why-some-employees-stop-speaking-up-even-when-they-see-problems/   We’ve heard it before, so should we take warnings about the sea level rise seriously … or is it really overreaction to something that is no big deal? (NewScientist) https://www.newscientist.com/video/2529040-antarcticas-doomsday-glacier-collapse-may-be-worse-than-we-thought/   … yet we might soon see the accuracy of one forecast as “Godzilla El Nino” gets closer and closer … as claims of its effects are troubling (Telegraph) https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/06/03/godzilla-el-nino-weather-pattern-warning-chaos-worldwide/   The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us. Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC | 717-556-8900 | 3175 Oregon Pike, Leola, PA 17540 Want to change how you receive these emails? You can unsubscribe from this list. ———————————————————————————- The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us.