There is, so far, little movement in the markets today … and one question is whether or not we are being lulled into complacency.
What do I mean by this?
Well, I ran some numbers this morning on the Dow and last year we had a return of greater than 1% … in either direction … 51 times … or, in other words, a little over 20% of all “trading days.” The last time we had a move that large was back in early December and – due to the present market height – a 1% move would be over 200 points. We do, of course, expect to see a move of this magnitude – in either direction – sometime in the near future … but what we must all keep in mind is to ignore the “shouting of strategists” that will follow … and recognize that moves of this nature are rather commonplace … and we should expect them.
Yes, we have been on a run … but even though President Trump tweeted out that we just had the “longest winning streak in decades” … it is actually the longest run since September 2013.
I guess Washington has a different definition of the word “decade.”
Meanwhile the economy appears to be on good footing, although apparent “growing pains” as the new administration takes shape could erode confidence, in my view, and market volatility could suddenly reappear.
Normally I try to close with some cute story but I really had trouble finding things today in the news … as all my typical sources seemed to focus on was the circus going on right now in Washington. I really long for the good old days … and look forward to the day when pages are once again filled with silly, stupid mindless gossip that doesn’t affect our everyday lives so much.
I never thought I would ever say this but …
… I kind of miss the Kardashians.
Have a great day.
Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA
Emerald Asset Management
610 Freedom Business Center Drive
King of Prussia, PA 19406
(610) 337-9230 ext. 6
… as of 10:45 AM today …
Quick Look at the News
Now that the market has risen, some are coming out of the woodwork to say they underestimated the move ... which, in other words, means they guessed wrong (CNBC)http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/15/top-strategist-tom-lee-says-hes-been-too-cautious-on-the-market.html
... for there are continued signs the employment situation remains strong ... as companies ... maybe seeing a shortage of qualified candidates ... are becoming less likely to fire workers already in place (Bloomberg)https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-16/fewer-americans-than-forecast-file-for-unemployment-insurance
... although the housing market is providing mixed signals right now. While housing starts are down, permits are up ... meaning things down the road might brighten a bit (Reuters)http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-housingstarts-idUSKBN15V1PX
In a study that didn't really need to be done, experts are showing that belly fat is not a good thing ... as it leads to greater instances of diabetes and heart disease (Health)http://www.health.com/heart-disease/genes-belly-fat-diabetes-heart-disease
... but, fortunately, scientists focus on other things more important to the common man ... things such as finding the best way to pour ketchup from a bottle (NYPost)http://nypost.com/2017/02/16/scientist-may-have-finally-found-the-best-way-to-pour-ketchup-from-a-bottle/
Are you caught up in the texting mania? Is this how you find it best to communicate? Well ... sorry to tell you this, but it could be affecting (and not in a good way) your future success (NYDailyNews)http://www.nydailynews.com/life-style/texting-stunt-future-success-article-1.2972703
Okay ... I included many articles recently about technology ... but most deal with silly things (like entertainment or how to get more ketchup from a bottle) ... but here is a serious one ... as the blind are helped to see (USAToday)http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/columnist/2017/02/15/high-tech-glasses-helping-blind-people-see/97960470/